Simulating the efficacy of vaccines on the epidemiological dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a membrane computing model.

Membrane computing is a natural computing procedure inspired in the compartmental structure of living cells. This approach allows mimicking the complex structure of biological processes, and, when applied to transmissible diseases, can simulate a virtual 'epidemic' based on interactions between elements within the computational model according to established conditions. General and focused vaccination strategies for controlling SARS-Cov-2 epidemics have been simulated for 2.3 years from the emergence of the epidemic in a hypothetical town of 10320 inhabitants in a country with mean European demographics where COVID-19 is imported. The age and immunological-response groups of the hosts and their lifestyles were minutely examined. The duration of natural, acquired immunity influenced the results; the shorter the duration, the more endemic the process, resulting in higher mortality, particularly among elderly individuals. During epidemic valleys between waves, the proportion of infected patients belonging to symptomatic groups (mostly elderly) increased in the total population, a population that largely benefits from standard double vaccination, particularly with boosters. There was no clear difference when comparing booster shots provided at 4 or 6 months after standard double-dose vaccination. Vaccines even of moderate efficacy (short-term protection) were effective in decreasing the number of symptomatic cases. Generalized vaccination of the entire population (all ages) added little benefit to overall mortality rates, and this situation also applied for generalized lockdowns. Elderly-only vaccination and lockdowns, even without general interventions directed to reduce population transmission, is sufficient for dramatically reducing mortality.

P systems in the time of COVID-19

In this paper, we present LOIMOS, which is an epidemiological scenario simulator developed in the context of the fight against the pandemic caused by coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 on a global scale. LOIMOS has been fully developed under the paradigm of membrane computing using transition P systems with communication rules, active membranes and a stochastic simulator engine. In this paper we detail the main components of the system and we report some examples of epidemiological scenarios evaluated with LOIMOS.

Adipose-derived mesenchymal stromal cells for the treatment of patients with severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia requiring mechanical ventilation. A proof of concept study.

BACKGROUND: Identification of effective treatments in severe cases of COVID-19 requiring mechanical ventilation represents an unmet medical need. Our aim was to determine whether the administration of adipose-tissue derived mesenchymal stromal cells (AT-MSC) is safe and potentially useful in these patients. METHODS: Thirteen COVID-19 adult patients under invasive mechanical ventilation who had received previous antiviral and/or anti-inflammatory treatments (including steroids, lopinavir/ritonavir, hydroxychloroquine and/or tocilizumab, among others) were treated with allogeneic AT-MSC. Ten patients received two doses, with the second dose administered a median of 3 days (interquartile range-IQR- 1 day) after the first one. Two patients received a single dose and another patient received 3 doses. Median number of cells per dose was 0.98 × 106 (IQR 0.50 × 106) AT-MSC/kg of recipient's body weight. Potential adverse effects related to cell infusion and clinical outcome were assessed. Additional parameters analyzed included changes in imaging, analytical and inflammatory parameters. FINDINGS: First dose of AT-MSC was administered at a median of 7 days (IQR 12 days) after mechanical ventilation. No adverse events were related to cell therapy. With a median follow-up of 16 days (IQR 9 days) after the first dose, clinical improvement was observed in nine patients (70%). Seven patients were extubated and discharged from ICU while four patients remained intubated (two with an improvement in their ventilatory and radiological parameters and two in stable condition). Two patients died (one due to massive gastrointestinal bleeding unrelated to MSC therapy). Treatment with AT-MSC was followed by a decrease in inflammatory parameters (reduction in C-reactive protein, IL-6, ferritin, LDH and d-dimer) as well as an increase in lymphocytes, particularly in those patients with clinical improvement. INTERPRETATION: Treatment with intravenous administration of AT-MSC in 13 severe COVID-19 pneumonia under mechanical ventilation in a small case series did not induce significant adverse events and was followed by clinical and biological improvement in most subjects. FUNDING: None.